Hey there folks, its March! Luke McCanna here, back again in an attempt to win you some pizza money during the best holiday of the year, the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament. Let’s take a look at the overall madness and find some lines we like and some lines to stay away from. The post season is already off to a dramatic start with North Carolina’s surprise admittance (put on your tinfoil cap), West Virginia threatening legal action over their snubbed invite, and Miami Ohio and South Alabama beefing with the NIT. Let’s try to cut through all the distractions and take a look at nuts and bolts basketball.
I’m not a pro, but let’s have some fun. If nothing else see this as some extra info from a guy whose watched a whole lot of games as you’re filling out your bracket.
All lines/odds are pulled from Draftkings as a baseline, but as always, please always shop around for the best numbers.
South Region
Creighton vs Louisville o144.5 (12:15pm EST March 20th)
Top of the morning wager on Thursday! What a way to start the tournament. I’m targeting the over in this contest. The totals of Creighton games are a bit deflated (compared to the eye test) due to them allowing some of the fewest free throws for opposing teams in the nation. Greg McDermott’s Blue Jays run a foul-less defensive scheme that his players have bought into for years. They like to sag off and pack the paint with four time Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner. That being said, I see Chucky Hepburn for Louisville being able to eat with his mid range jumper at the high post. This was a frequent game plan when he was at Wisconsin and I think they roll it out again. Chucky has experience with Creighton’s defensive scheme after playing against Zach Edey and Purdue. Both Louisville and Creighton also shoot 48% or more of their field goal attempts from behind the arc. I see Louisville taking an early lead and Creighton trying to shoot their way back into it. I also see this game going over easily, as long as one team is able to shoot well from deep. We just have to hope the early morning game doesn’t result in a sluggish start or extra jitters, but these are two teams with strong veteran presences. I think they’ll be ready for the moment.
Marquette vs New Mexico u153.5 (7:25pm EST March 21st)
Here we have an incredibly fun match up featuring two top guards in the country, Kam Jones of Marquette and Donovan Dent of New Mexico. Both can create shots and get to the rim from wherever they want. New Mexico has established themselves as a top 20 defensive team this year, with their only weakness being protecting the three point line. Good news is that Marquette does not shoot it well from deep. I think this game is won in the pick and roll down the stretch, with both teams trying to prove who has the better man-to-man hard nosed defense. Take the under in a grinder match up between two teams that are in the bottom half of the league in free throw percentage. That being said, just because I am expecting the under doesn’t mean this game won’t be extremely entertaining.
Texas A&M -7 vs Yale (7:25pm EST March 20th)
Yale comes into the tournament as back-to-back Ivy league champions ready to attempt another first round upset. The physical and fundamental half-court style of basketball they play worked well to slow down Auburn in last year’s electric first round matchup. This year however, I think they are simply over matched in physicality. Buzz Williams’ Aggies may be a bit undersized, but they have proven themselves to be defensive and offensive rebounding machines. Texas A&M likes to rely on the free throw line and second chance buckets, while Yale relies on milking the clock and shooting 3s. Relying on the 3 against a team that doesn’t allow second chance buckets is a recipe for disaster. I see Yale getting into foul trouble early and never being able to recover. Back the Aggies at -7.
East Region
Liberty +7.5 vs Oregon (10:10pm EST March 21st)
This is a game in which I am taking the brain over the heart. I wouldn’t mind if Fallwell’s Christian money machine ceased to exist, while Dana Altman’s track record in the tournament is always outstanding. He is one of the only coaches in the country not afraid to full court press at any given time. That being said, this year’s Oregon squad is usually forced to press out of necessity of being down early and clawing their way back. It seems that Dana just hasn’t found his best rotation, similar to the way Gonzaga has been struggling with its depth and options. Liberty likes to extend their defense past the perimeter to accommodate for their lack of size inside. They guard the 3 very well and slow teams down. I believe this game will come down to the effectiveness of Oregon’s big man, Nate Bittle. For my heart’s purposes, I believe he will do enough to win the Ducks the game, however in close fashion. Back the Flames at +7.5 and say a prayer for forgiveness that you made money betting on Liberty.
BYU to make the Elite 8 +425
BYU vs VCU is my favorite match up of the 1st round. You have one of the hottest and fastest playing teams in the country, BYU, matched up against VCU, Ken Pom’s #1 ranked defense in Effective FG%. Honestly, this game is a coin flip for me. However, if BYU is able to survive VCU, I LOVE their path to the Elite 8. Likely match ups against Wisconsin and an injured/faltering Alabama will simply be about scoring more points, which BYU is accustomed to. Their late season match ups against Arizona and Iowa State where they won both games by putting up 96 points will be carbon copies of games against high flying Wisconsin and Alabama. Sprinkle on the Cougars to make the Elite 8 due to the quality of stylistic match ups past the first round. Also have fun watching Egor Demin now before he’s in the NBA for years to come.
West Region
Drake +6.5 vs Missouri (7:35pm EST March 20th)
Ben McCollum’s Drake Bulldogs are the best story in college basketball this year, and their run isn’t over. In his first year coaching at the D1 level he brought 4 transfers with him from his D2 Northwest Missouri State dynasty, and the lads showed they can more than compete in D1. Bennett Stirtz leads the Bulldogs and is a walking bucket. I hope some NBA team gives him a chance (looking at you Cavs). Outside of the emotional pull towards Drake, they are a top 20 offensive rebounding team and force the highest percentage of steals in the country on the defensive end. Drake’s weakness is being overrun by size, which Missouri does not have on the interior. I think Drake will still be able to clean up the glass and run their usual slow and methodical offense. If Drake can stay out of foul trouble, they should have no problem keeping this game close. Back Drake at +6.5.
Memphis to reach the Sweet 16 +600
The west region is where my long shot bet will be coming from. Feel free to join in on some value. The books have Memphis as an underdog in their first round matchup with Colorado State due to the uncertainty of Tyrese Hunter’s injury. Penny Hardaway has seemed hopeful about Hunter playing, and if he does, this team is very dangerous. Simply a value play at +600, hoping the injuries fall on our side. Memphis holds great wins over Michigan State, Clemson, Ole Miss, Uconn, Missouri, and San Francisco all early in the season. I feel the lack of formidable opponents outside of North Texas and UAB in the American Conference this year dropped Memphis off people’s radars. Don’t sleep. This could be considered a lil cinderella pick, but I don’t care, I think Penny has figured this team out. He seems especially motivated after early round exits in previous tournament, including their 2023 loss to Dusty May’s FAU team that ended up in a Final Four run for the Owls. I know Penny thinks he would have went on that run had they won. This could be his revenge tour.
Midwest Region
Unfortunately at the time of writing this, there is no line I love in this region for first round games, so let’s talk bracket picks. Illinois is an intriguing basketball team this year. They have 2 projected top-20 NBA picks in Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley. They play fast and sloppy with a very high ceiling if they shoot the 3 well. I think they can take care of Xavier/Texas and a volatile Kentucky team. Ride the Illini to the Sweet 16.
Purdue is still good without Edey. Strong guards and well coached. I think they benefit from their potential matc hup with what I believe is the weakest 5 seed, Clemson. I think they can ride Braeden Smith and Fletcher Loyer to the Sweet 16.
Overall, I think Houston is still above the field in this region. I’m picking them to make it out of the Midwest. They don’t play anyone taller than 6-8, so maybe Gonzaga can give them some trouble with a vintage Mark Few high/low game plan, but I still think they are just as physical as years past. Kelvin Sampson knows what he’s doing. Houston to the Final 4.
Thank you all for reading along, and best of luck!! Remember, this is all for fun and I’m not a pro, this is not professional betting or investing advice. I just watch way too many hoops. Enjoy the holidays! Hopefully you can make a few bucks and donate it right back into your NIL collective of choice.
